Nikola Jokic. Basketball player? More like Basketball God.

Nuggets late game offense: Using off-ball movement to enhance Nikola Jokic’s brilliance

Basketball Chess

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Introduction

One of my favorite parts of Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic’s game is his versatility coming off of screens — his superb shooting makes him a threat to pop to the perimeter, he can roll hard to the rim and finish strong, can short roll and make the right pass if the ballhandler is doubled, etc. This versatility makes him extremely difficult to guard when a teammate screens for him.

NBA defense is all about trade-offs and compromises, and Jokic is great at discerning exactly where the defense is compromised and making the right play to expose whatever weakness lies in the armor. In this way, his ability to read and react with and without the ball in his hands seems to always make the defense pay for their choices. His position as a center makes his off-ball proficiency even more lethal, since most big men lack the agility to chase players off of screens. As a case in point, even the relatively fleet-footed James Wiseman struggled mightily to fight over screens and consistently contain Jokic last night.

Jokic is also one of the few superstars who is always willing to consistently move off of the ball. He is traveling 1.33 miles per game on offense so far this year, good for 4th in the league among starting centers. To put this into perspective, he is outpacing much more graceful players like Anthony Davis (1.07 mi/gm), Seth Curry (1.20 mi/gm) and Bojan Bogdanovic (1.22 mi/gm). The contrast with Davis is especially glaring, since he has similar (if not better) versatility off of the ball and could drastically improve his own shot quality from the same exact types of actions the Nuggets use.

I wanted to write an article to highlight Jokic’s off-ball movement with video examples and showcase a specific action the Nuggets used late in the 4th quarter to get buckets in the clutch against the Golden State Warriors on 1/14/21.

Brief example: Simple down screen action

Murray sets a down screen for Jokic to get him a layup

In this play, Jamal Murray (no. 27) sets a down screen for Jokic on the right side of the court, and Wiseman (no. 33) tries to fight over the screen. Jokic reads Wiseman’s defense and opts to curl to the paint where he gets an easy layup and Wiseman is a step behind. This is such a simple play and an example of how easily a superstar can get their own shots and improve their teammates’ shot quality by making a commitment to move more off-ball. It also displays the “read-and-react” nature of movement, with Jokic’s decision on where to go (curl to the rim, fade to the corner, or curl to the right wing behind the arc) being predicated wholly on the behavior of the defender.

Late game set: Cross-screen action

Another common offensive tactic the Nuggets use is to set an off-ball cross screen for Jokic to get him better post position. They went to this strategy multiple times down the stretch of their game against the Warriors.

Possession 1

Possession 1 of Nuggets’ cross screen action, Curry getting lost leads to an easy dunk by Barton

In the possession shown above, Murray (barely) sets a cross screen for Jokic to get him the ball near the left block. JaMychal Green (no. 0) simultaneously sets a ball screen for Monte Morris (no. 11) but this is a decoy and the primary purpose is to ensure a clean post entry pass to Jokic.

Then, they “screen for the screener” as JaMychal Green sets a down screen for Murray and Steph Curry (no. 30) gets confused and goes with Murray instead of Will Barton (no. 5), his assignment. Barton reads this and cuts to the basket for an easy dunk.

This play works so well because of the attention Murray demands as a shooting threat and because the cross screen gives Jokic an advantage by throwing his defender off a bit. Notice how Draymond Green (no. 23) makes the decision to commit to double-teaming Jokic since he has a huge advantage in isolation, which also leaves Morris open for a midrange jumper.

Thus, there are five total lethal options on a simple cross screen action:

  1. Jokic postup against a hampered defender
  2. Murray open jumper off of a down screen
  3. Morris midrange jumper if his defender helps on Jokic
  4. Barton open layup if his man cheats on the Murray down screen
  5. JaMychal Green open 3-pointer if the defender drops to the paint on the initial ball screen

Possession 2

Possession 2 of Nuggets’ cross screen action, Jokic beats Wiseman as he goes over the screen and gets to his spot late.

On the second rendition of this set, Wiseman decides to go “over” the cross screen (notice how he curls around the side further from the basket) which makes him late to guard Jokic in isolation. Jokic sees this and calls his own number, resulting in 2 free throws after he gets fouled on the open dunk attempt.

This play makes it clear that there is really nothing a big man can do when individually matched up against Jokic if their feet aren’t quick enough to move around cross screens. Paradoxically it is also quite difficult to send help from anywhere on the court without giving up an open 3-pointer, since every defender is occupied with a credible shooter.

Possession 3

Possession 3, Draymond Green aggressively denies the post entry pass to Jokic leading to an open 3 for JaMychal Green

When they go to this set for a third time, Draymond Green shows his savant-like recognition and immediately commits to denying the post entry pass to Jokic instead of paying any attention to the JaMychal Green screen-and-pop. Morris expertly recognizes this and hits JaMychal Green for an open 3-pointer.

The latter two examples show how difficult it is to address all (or even some) of the potent weapons at the Nuggets’ disposal. Moreover, the Nuggets aren’t running some complex and esoteric play, but simply getting the ball into the post with a cross screen. Such is the power of a dual-threat basketball player who can equally dissect a defense with scoring and passing.

How can teams defend this more reliably?

In order to defend this play, it is probably most favorable to try denying the post entry pass to Jokic, as Draymond Green does in the latest example.

However, it would be better if Jokic’s man (Wiseman in these 3 examples) could fight “over” the cross screen and front the post to deny the entry pass themselves, minimizing the total amount of help defense required. The issue with this approach is that it is ultra-aggressive and if the defender gets tied up even slightly, Jokic is able to catch the ball with no resistance and get an easy layup like in possession 2. Therefore, fighting over the cross screen and trying to minimize help defense is a good approach in theory but almost impossible to do by doubling Jokic.

In my opinion, a defense would have more success if the player tasked with defending the decoy ball screen (Draymond Green in the last play) hedges toward the ballhandler, not Jokic, to try to prevent the entry pass. This delay would give Jokic’s defender more time to possibly go under the cross screen and get into the right position before Jokic gets the ball. Moreover, Draymond Green would have been able to recover to the shooter (JaMychal Green) quicker on the last play if he had been doubling Morris rather than Jokic.

If Jokic’s defender decides to go “under” the cross screen (move around the screener by curling in the direction of the basket), the defense may give up a more open shot further from the rim but would be in a better position to defend the isolation postup. I think the best counter to this from the Nuggets’ side is for Jokic to continue running and flow into a side pick-and-pop with Morris at the left wing. This would either lead to the big man being so out of position that Morris gets an open lane for a drive, and if the big man commits to corralling the drive Jokic can get an open 3 pointer by popping.

We should note that even if going under the screen gives the defender perfect positioning on the postup, the defensive center still has the tough task of actually guarding the 260+ lb Jokic one-on-one in isolation if no help is available. If a team believes their center has the requisite strength and discipline to do this, I think the best option to counter this play in late game situations is to have Jokic’s defender go under the cross screen and have JaMychal Green’s defender (Draymond Green in these examples) hedge toward the ballhandler to prevent the post entry pass by guarding the entry passer instead of the entry pass recipient.

Hope this article was an enjoyable read! Off-ball movement is a great way for a star player to make their teammates better by producing more open looks for everyone. I hope this article was able to demonstrate some of the ways in which an offense can flow drastically better by using simple cross screens or down screens to improve the attacking player’s positioning.

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Basketball Chess

I like to watch basketball and write code. I also like to write sometimes and will publish my work here if anyone is interested.